Hedge Fund Stock Pitch Mini Cases
Hedge fund interviews love stock pitch mini cases because they are the closest thing to the real job. You are forced to take imperfect information, form a view fast, and defend it under pressure.
Note
Module Reading: This article accompanies the Stock Pitch Mini Cases module in our Hedge Fund interview prep track.
Hedge fund interviews love stock pitch mini cases because they are the closest thing to the real job. You are forced to take imperfect information, form a view fast, and defend it under pressure. That is exactly what you do on the desk, just with fewer spreadsheets and more interruptions.
In this module, you are training for the two most common mini cases: one longand one short. The goal is not to sound "smart." The goal is to soundinvestable: clear thesis, clear edge, clear catalyst path, and a risk plan that makes the trade survivable.
Read This Twice
In hedge funds, you rarely get paid for being "right" on fundamentals. You get paid for being right on fundamentals vs expectations, and for having a believablecatalyst that closes that gap.
Practice stock pitch mini cases the way hedge funds run them: fast thesis, catalyst, and pushback Q&A.
1) What the Mini Case Is Really Testing
Mini cases are less about your ability to recite a template and more about whether you can think like a PM. Interviewers are listening for four things:
- Do you understand what drives the business?
- Do you understand what the market currently believes?
- Do you have a differentiated view?
- Do you have a plan for how you get paid and how you avoid blowing up?
The format is often time-boxed. Sometimes it is a live prompt with 10 to 20 minutes to think. Other times it is a short take-home with a discussion and heavy Q&A.
What 'Good' vs 'Weak' Sounds Like
| Term | Definition | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Business Understanding | Good: 'These 2 drivers explain 80% of outcomes.' | Weak: 'Let me walk through every segment.' |
| Expectations | Good: 'Street is at X, I'm at Y, because…' | Weak: 'It's a great company.' |
| Catalyst Path | Good: 'In the next 1–2 quarters, this gets revealed via…' | Weak: 'Long term it should work.' |
| Risk Control | Good: 'Here is what proves me wrong and what I'd do.' | Weak: 'Downside is limited because it's cheap.' |
In a hedge fund stock pitch mini case, which thesis framing best demonstrates a true edge (variant perception) rather than a generic positive view?
2) The Long Mini Case: Build a Thesis That Survives Pushback
A good long pitch is not "it is undervalued." It is: earnings will be higher than expected (or less risky than expected), and the market will realize that on a clear timeline.
Start with a one-liner that includes the trade, the why, and the timing. Then immediately anchor the discussion on 2 to 3 drivers that matter most (pricing, volume, mix, margin, churn, utilization, regulation).
Long Pitch Skeleton (What to Hit in ~10 Minutes)
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| 1) Thesis (10–20s) | 'Long X because Y will happen by Z.' |
| 2) Business + Drivers | 2–3 drivers, why they matter |
| 3) Expectations | What the market is pricing in |
| 4) Variant View | Why your numbers differ |
| 5) Valuation | Upside/downside with a base-case anchor |
| 6) Catalysts | What changes minds, and when |
| 7) Risks + Kill Points | What proves you wrong, what you do |
Common Trap
"Cheap" is not a catalyst. If you lead with valuation, expect the interviewer to ask: "Why hasn't it worked already, and what changes now?"
If you can't state the expectations gap in one sentence, drill more long-pitch questions until it's automatic.
3) The Short Mini Case: You Need a Catalyst and a Survival Plan
Shorts are harder in interviews because you must answer two extra questions: why down, and why now. The best shorts usually combine:
- Fundamental deterioration or accounting/quality issues
- A market narrative that is too optimistic
- A catalyst that forces a reset (miss, guide-down, regulation, refinancing wall, competition)
Short Pitch Checklist
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Core Short Thesis | 'Earnings will reset down because X is unsustainable.' |
| Expectations | 'Market prices perfection, but KPI trend implies…' |
| Catalyst | Specific event or timeline that forces repricing |
| Borrow + Squeeze Risk | Borrow availability, fee sensitivity, recall risk |
| Expression | Short stock vs puts vs put spreads vs pairs |
| Kill Points | The single KPI that would prove you wrong |
You're pitching a short in a crowded name. Which point most directly shows you understand the *non-fundamental* risk that can kill an otherwise correct short thesis?
4) Risk-Reward: Scenario Thinking Beats Point Estimates
Hedge fund interviews reward candidates who think in scenarios. You do not need a perfect DCF. You need a credible base case plus a clear upside/downside map.
A practical framework is: Base, Bull, Bear with (1) what changes fundamentally, (2) what the market re-prices, and (3) what the catalyst is. Then add your "kill points": the observable signals that tell you the bear case is happening.
Compact Way to Present
Bull (+30%, 25% prob): "If X happens, estimates reset to Y and the multiple re-rates to Z."
Base (+10%, 55% prob): "Steady execution."
Bear (-25%, 20% prob): "If the catalyst fails, the market de-risks and the stock de-rates to peer trough multiples."
Expected return: = (0.25×30%) + (0.55×10%) + (0.20×-25%) = +8.0%
A long pitch has three scenarios over the next 6 months: Bull +35% (25% probability), Base +10% (55%), Bear -30% (20%). Ignoring dividends, what is the expected return, and what is the best interpretation in an interview?
5) The PM Pushback: How to Answer Follow-Ups
Most candidates fail mini cases in the Q&A, not the initial pitch. The interviewer will try to break your thesis with three moves: (1) challenge your driver, (2) challenge your timing, (3) challenge your risk control.
Three High-Frequency Follow-Ups and Strong Ways to Answer:
"What is the one thing you could be most wrong about?"
Answer with a single driver, not a list. Then give an observable signal.
Example: "I could be wrong on pricing power. If price increases don't stick in the next quarter, I cut the position because the margin thesis dies."
"Why hasn't the market seen this?"
Answer with a real reason: complexity, segmentation, mis-modeled KPI, temporary noise, or a missing piece of data. If your answer is "it's overlooked," you will get cooked.
"What do you watch every week to stay in the trade?"
Give a monitoring dashboard: 3 KPIs, 1 qualitative check, 1 valuation check.
Example: "Weekly: web traffic or bookings trend, pricing checks vs competitor, channel inventory, and borrow cost trend if it's a short."
6) Two Mini Case Templates You Can Reuse
A) Long Mini Case Template (10-minute prep)
Long Pitch Structure
1) One-line thesis: Long AlphaCo because [driver] will improve [metric], taking FY EPS from [Street] to [your view] by [catalyst + time].
2) What the market believes: Street expects [bad thing]: margin pressure, growth decel, cycle peak, regulation, competition.
3) Your edge (variant view): Consensus is missing one key mechanism: The KPI that matters is [KPI], not revenue. Mix shift changes margins more than expected. Competitive dynamic has turned (with evidence).
4) Catalysts (ranked): Next earnings: [metric] surprises. Product or pricing change shows up in KPIs. Investor day, regulatory milestone, contract win.
5) Valuation: Base: [fair value] = [multiple] × [earnings]. Downside: where you cut. Upside: what has to be true for rerating.
6) Kill points: If [observable] happens, thesis broken, I exit.
B) Short Mini Case Template (10-minute prep)
Short Pitch Structure
1) One-line thesis: Short BetaCo because current expectations imply [too-optimistic assumption], but [structural issue] forces a reset within [time].
2) What is priced in (and why it is wrong): Market assumes [growth/margin] persists, but unit economics show [churn, CAC, pricing, returns] deteriorating.
3) Catalyst path: Near-term: miss, guide down, pricing compression, inventory correction. Medium-term: refinancing, regulation, customer concentration blow-up.
4) Short-specific survivability: Borrow and squeeze risk assessment. Expression if borrow hard: puts or put spreads, or paired short vs a long in the same factor bucket.
5) Kill points: The single KPI that would prove you wrong.
Key Takeaways
What You Should Be Able to Do
- Lead with expectations vs reality, not "great company" narratives.
- Deliver a long pitch with 2–3 true drivers, a catalyst path, and explicit kill points.
- Deliver a short pitch that includes why now and a survivability plan (borrow, squeeze, expression).
- Use a scenario map (bull/base/bear) to explain risk-reward instead of pretending precision.
- Handle pushback with structure: driver, evidence, timeline, action.
- Always state what you would monitor weekly, so you sound like someone who can run risk.
- Keep it decisive: a mini case is a decision memo, not a textbook chapter.
Continue Your Hedge Fund Interview Prep
Master these related topics to complete your hedge fund interview preparation:
- Hedge Fund Fundamentals & Strategy Types — L/S equity, event-driven, macro, and quant strategies
- Hedge Fund Market Analysis & Investment Ideas — Generate and defend trade ideas
- Hedge Fund Valuation & Price Targets — Turn analysis into tradable price targets
- Hedge Fund Trading & Execution — Order types, benchmarks, and short mechanics
- Hedge Fund Portfolio Construction — Gross/net exposure, position sizing, and risk management
- Hedge Fund Macro Scenarios & Market Judgment — Economic scenarios and articulating conviction